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In NCAA basketball tournaments, bubble teams frantically try to qualify for the Big Dance. In baseball, the rhythms are different. Bubble teams must decide whether to accelerate their dance steps and acquire players for a playoff chase, or leave the floor by trading off parts.
The return from the All-Star break marks the start of trade season and countdown to the deadline, which this year takes place on Aug. 1. My six bubble teams have playoff odds ranging from approximately 10 percent to 30 percent, according to Fangraphs. The next two weeks likely will determine their respective directions.
The buy-sell calculus is not necessarily either-or; some teams will do both at once. We know who some of the sellers are: The Cardinals, White Sox, Tigers and Pirates; as well as four clubs with playoff odds of zero percent, the Royals, Athletics, Nationals and Rockies. The buyers, too, are fairly obvious.
The bubble teams are in less defined positions. Their seasons are effectively on the line. And the next two weeks carry urgency similar to what contenders face in the final two weeks of September.
Without further ado, then, here is my Uncertain Six, from lowest playoff odds to highest. The schedules listed are through July 30.
Playoff odds: 9.6 percent
Schedule: BOS 3, WAS 3, STL 4, @CWS 2, @STL 4
True, the Cubs are the only team with a plus run differential in the wretched NL Central. By Fangraphs’ calculations, they also have the easiest remaining overall schedule in the division. Their odds are low because they probably need to win the division to reach the postseason, and they’re seven games behind the Reds and six behind the Brewers.
Sort of tells you which way the arrow is pointing, no?
The return of shortstop Dansby Swanson from a left heel contusion should be imminent; he is eligible to come off the injured list on Sunday. Right-hander Marcus Stroman, who skipped the All-Star Game, saying he needed a physical break and mental reset, is scheduled to pitch Saturday at Wrigley Field.
If the Cubs fail to get hot, their leading trade candidates will be Stroman, who can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and center fielder Cody Bellinger, who is on a one-year deal.
Playoff odds: 10.9 percent
Schedule: HOU 3, NYY 3, PIT 3, @DET 3, @TOR 3
As of this moment, the consensus around the sport is that Angels owner Arte Moreno does not want to trade Shohei Ohtani. But the Angels lost nine of 10 entering the break, and Mike Trout will be out through the deadline and possibly a good bit beyond.
The pressure on Moreno will mount if the Angels continue to collapse and the reality of losing Ohtani for only a draft pick in the 75 to 80 range sets in. The first six games against the Astros and Yankees coming out of the break obviously look difficult. But shortstop Zach Neto and lefty reliever Matt Moore will return from the injured list on Friday night, and third baseman Anthony Rendon could be back fairly soon.
Barring a public declaration from Moreno, which is highly unlikely, the intrigue surrounding Ohtani likely will continue right up until the deadline. Starting Aug. 1, Ohtani will be owed exactly $10 million in salary. If the Angels make him available, even low-revenue teams would figure to enter the mix.
Playoff odds: 14.7 percent
Schedule: LAD 3, CWS 3, @BOS 3, @NYY 2, WAS 4
Not looking good, is it? The Mets won six straight before losing their final two games to the Padres before the deadline. They need to get rolling again quickly, and the pending return of left-hander José Quintana, who has been out all season with a stress fracture in his left rib, could help.
Owner Steve Cohen has said the team will sell, if necessary, but that is not the Mets’ intention, as evidenced by their recent $8.5 million outlay in salary and luxury tax for a middle-inning reliever, Trevor Gott. The potential for additional luxury-tax penalties, combined with the Mets’ reluctance to move prospects, would complicate the pursuit of more significant acquisitions.
If the Mets sold, their potential free agents — closer David Robertson, and outfielders Tommy Pham and Mark Canha — would be the most likely to go.
Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer?
Both have full no-trade clauses, and both have waived them before. But as I wrote in The Windup on Thursday, a failure by the Mets to surge likely would mean their two older aces weren’t pitching all that well. In which case their performances might be as big a deterrent to prospective suitors as their remaining tens of millions in salary.
Playoff odds: 22.9 percent
Schedule: DET 3, MIN 4, TOR 3, @MIN 3, @AZ 3
Under Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners are always a good bet to shake it up. Two years ago, they acted as both buyers and sellers. Last season, they acquired the best pitcher available, Luis Castillo, and made another minor deal for catcher Curt Casali and lefty Matthew Boyd.
As the break approached, the Mariners were building momentum, winning seven of their last nine, including three of four just before the break at their house of horrors, Houston’s Minute Maid Park. The trade of Gott and Chris Flexen to the Mets created approximately $4.5 million in additional payroll flexibility. Right-hander Bryce Miller is expected to return from a blister on his right middle finger shortly after the break.
The problem is that the Mariners are six games back in the AL West, and the wild-card race also is highly competitive. The Orioles, Astros and Blue Jays currently hold the three spots, and the Yankees and Red Sox are ahead of the Mariners, too.
Boston Red Sox (48-43)
Playoff odds: 29.7 percent
Schedule: @CHC 3, @OAK 3, NYM 3, ATL 2, @SF 3
The team’s last-place standing in the AL East is deceptive. The Red Sox are only two games back in the wild-card race, and they entered the break on an 8-1 roll. Shortstop Trevor Story, out all season after undergoing an internal brace procedure on his right elbow, is expected to begin a rehabilitation assignment shortly.
All of that is promising, but as The Athletic’s Chad Jennings notes, the Sox currently are without Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock, leaving them with only three healthy starting pitchers, James Paxton, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. Maybe they’ll stay hot on their six-game road trip coming out of the break against the Cubs and A’s. But with their pitching injuries, how long can they keep this up?
President of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, after executing a faulty buy-sell strategy at last year’s deadline, will be under particular scrutiny. Left-hander Paxton and center fielder Adam Duvall would be attractive trade candidates. But modest adds might be a better way to go.
San Diego Padres (43-47)
Playoff odds: 32.3 percent
Schedule: @PHI 4, @TOR 3, @DET 3, PIT 3, TEX 3
Ignoring the Padres’ uninspired performance in their first 90 games, owner Peter Seidler recently told the San Diego Union-Tribune, “There’s a lot of catching up for us to do. I’m on the train that says we’re gonna catch up.” To Seidler, it’s always sunny in San Diego, whether you’re talking about the weather or his team. Which come to think of it, might be part of the Padres’ problem.
The default position for general manager A.J. Preller is acquire now and worry later, if at all. The Padres’ current luxury-tax payroll of $276.5 million, while still more than $100 million below the Mets’, puts them over three of the four thresholds. Yet they are six games out in the wild-card race, a shocking nine games behind the team in the top spot, the Marlins.
If the Padres do not ignite quickly, the prudent course might be to trade All-Star closer Josh Hader, should-have-been All-Star Blake Snell and others. But as The Athletic’s Jim Bowden points out, with left fielder Juan Soto only under club control through 2024, the team’s best window to win is this season and next. And with an average home attendance of more than 41,000, any step back would be difficult to justify.
The Padres’ top prospect, High-A shortstop Jackson Merrill, probably should not get too comfortable, particularly if Ohtani becomes available. At this time of year, Preller is always on the prowl.
(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
