Cubs’ reasons for optimism — and biggest disappointments — as trade deadline looms

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Coming out of the All-Star break, the Cubs have Kyle Hendricks, Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele lined up to face the Red Sox this weekend at Wrigley Field. Though this interleague series won’t have the same juice without Theo Epstein, Anthony Rizzo or Jon Lester, these games are still hugely important as the Cubs try to establish themselves as a team that won’t be selling at the Aug. 1 trade deadline.

It could still go either way as the Cubs have a 42-47 record and a softer schedule in the second half. The National League Central is not as rugged as the East or West divisions, but these next 19 days may well define the entire season.

In projecting best-case scenarios for 2023, the Cubs hoped for a wave of young talent to surface, which would complement a fundamentally sound roster built around pitching and defense. An accomplished group of veteran players would work with a large coaching staff to create a culture of preparation, do the little things right and find any edge to win those close games.

At this moment, the Reds (50-41) look like they have passed the Cubs, turbo-boosted by Elly De La Cruz and a new generation of dynamic players. The Brewers (49-42) keep doing more with less under manager Craig Counsell, continuing a trend that makes you think their record in one-run games (16-7) isn’t a total fluke.

Yet the Cubs are only seven games out of first place and still in a crowded wild-card picture. Here’s a look at where things stand on Chicago’s North Side:

Playoff odds

Baseball-Reference: 33.3 percent

PECOTA: 11 percent

FanGraphs: 9.8 percent

First-half MVPs

• Stroman is tied for the NL lead in starts (19) and fourth in ERA (2.96 ERA), though he acknowledged that he needed a physical break and a mental reset, which is why he didn’t attend the All-Star festivities in Seattle. Steele ranks second in the NL in ERA (2.56) and third in WHIP (1.06), becoming the homegrown ace the Cubs had struggled to develop for years. What a waste it would be for a team to have 40 percent of its rotation chosen for the All-Star Game, only for one of those starting pitchers to get traded a few weeks later.

• Dansby Swanson has been exactly what the Cubs hoped for when they signed the Gold Glove shortstop to a seven-year, $177 million contract. Even if the power numbers aren’t quite there yet (10 homers, .753 OPS), Swanson is an excellent defender, a good hitter, an alert base runner and a strong clubhouse presence. Thus far, Swanson has also outperformed Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts. Swanson, however, had to skip the All-Star Game due to a left heel contusion and will not be eligible to come off the injured list until Sunday.

Biggest disappointments

• It’s hard to ignore the disastrous first half Jameson Taillon went through. Perhaps Taillon doesn’t deserve the 6.15 ERA he’s posted, but nobody would suggest that he’s been anywhere close to good enough. Taillon is a thoughtful pitcher who will pore through data to try to get better whether he’s thriving or not. He’s searched for answers over the past months and believed he was close to figuring it out. Perhaps last Friday’s eight shutout innings are a sign of what’s to come for the big righty.

Even with the poor performance on the field, Taillon has emerged as a leader among the pitching staff. His desire to watch his teammates’ bullpens has spread through the rotation and become a daily activity for the group as they try to learn from each other. Most Cubs fans have only seen this version of Taillon, and as someone who cares quite a bit about his team and his performance, it certainly doesn’t sit well with him that he’s so far failed to make a good impression.

“You want to prove that you’re worth whatever you were given,” Swanson said. “You want to prove that you’re worth every penny. You can put so much internal pressure on yourself that you’re trying so hard instead of just being yourself. That’s the way (my wife Mallory) says it to me all the time: ‘Stop trying, just start being.’ That’s something that’s really tough to navigate through, at times, but we all learn each and every day in this life. (Taillon’s) handled it so well. He’s a true pro, one of my favorite teammates I’ve had.”

• Seiya Suzuki has all the attributes front offices look for when searching for a potential star. He doesn’t chase out of the zone, he rarely swings and misses, and when he connects, it’s usually on the barrel. This season, Suzuki has actually improved some of those characteristics and is even hitting the ball harder and doing so more often. The problem is his barrel rate has dropped, and with that, he’s putting the ball on the ground far too often (45.3 percent, over five points higher than last season).

“Do we think there’s more in there?” Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said. “Yeah, of course. We think that he can be an elite bat. Has he played up to that potential quite yet? No. He’ll be the first one to tell us that. But at the same time, you see flashes of greatness. It’s just about finding consistency. We know it’s in there. He’s working hard to make that happen.”

Suzuki didn’t have a great explanation as to why he’s putting the ball on the ground more. However, he did share at the end of the first half that he was focusing too much on his swing. Over that last week, he started to think less about that aspect and concentrated on trying to have a competitive at-bat. Suzuki hit a home run in the final game before the break, his first since May 23. The Cubs have to hope that’s the start of his new mindset, finally allowing him to tap into the power they so desperately need.

X-factors

• The Cubs had no idea what to expect when Hendricks was shut down last season and diagnosed with a capsular tear in his right shoulder.

“There was a real level of concern,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said. “We approached his rehab with a real level of caution, and he did as well. We took our time. We probably took a slower path than we could have to make sure he came back healthy. Even in spring training, we had the discussion about let’s work on upping your velocity. Even though you’re not going to be throwing 94, the separation from his fastball and changeup is a significant part of what makes him good. We took a little bit more time, and that looks like it’s paying off.”

Hendricks, 33, has a 3.04 ERA in nine starts, and his contract includes a $16 million club option for next season. The last active player remaining from the 2016 World Series team hopes to stick around long enough to start another playoff game at Wrigley Field. At this stage of his career, he also understands the business.

• Whether he’s traded at the deadline or the missing piece to the offense, Cody Bellinger is going to be a focus for this team over the next three weeks. If Bellinger is the player he was in April — and the one he’s been since returning from the injured list (especially the last week before the break) — then the Cubs’ offense changes dramatically. Talk to anyone around the team and they’ll tell you they like a lot of the pieces on offense, but the lack of ability to score in bunches — read that as putting the ball over the fence, especially with runners on base — has crushed them.

Bellinger plays a plus defensive center field and has shown signs that he’s getting back to being the offensive performer he was in his better years with the Dodgers. Does he need to be the 2019 version of Bellinger who put up a 161 wRC+ and won NL MVP? The Cubs would surely take it, but probably not. If he can just hover around the 126 wRC+ he has right now and maybe increase the power output a tick — he’s at a respectable .193 ISO that’s been climbing of late — then he’s either the key to an offense that’s humming along or a huge trade piece come late July.

• This could perhaps go under the biggest disappointment category for the first half if not for a June turnaround that absolutely has to continue if the Cubs have any chance of contending. Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer were the veterans who were supposed to stabilize the group, but Boxberger struggled and has now been on the injured list since mid-May. Credit to Fulmer for bouncing back from a rough start to his Cubs career (0.93 ERA in 19 1/3 innings since May 28), but his struggles in high-leverage moments in April and May kept the Cubs from hitting one of those long winning streaks early in the year.

The biggest issue may have been Keegan Thompson’s struggles. Viewed as a potential multi-inning linchpin to the bullpen, Thompson worked through some bad peripherals early on, but it eventually caught up to him. Over his final eight innings of work, he posted a 10.13 ERA, walked as many batters as he struck out (four) and generally looked lost on the mound. It all came to a head on May 17 in Houston when he failed to retire any of the three Astros he faced in the ninth as the Cubs blew a late 6-0 lead in what would turn out to be an awful road trip.

There has been some stabilization since. Fulmer has found his rhythm, Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr. have been rocks and Daniel Palencia has come up and shown poise to go with a triple-digit heater. Will it continue on that path in July and August? Will Hoyer add more arms to the group? A lefty would be nice to give Leiter some breaks in those moments. But that’s to be seen as the Cubs try to crawl out of the hole that the bullpen helped dig.

Progress isn’t linear

A much-hyped farm system hasn’t delivered that much impact, especially when compared to what Reds fans are watching right now. Young players have plateaued, regressed and struggled to stay healthy, which is all part of the game. No doubt, Christopher Morel and Miguel Amaya have been bright spots, and the overall picture could look different by the end of the season if Palencia and other players from Triple-A Iowa contribute to a playoff run.

But Thompson’s struggles are emblematic of a larger issue with players the Cubs expected to take a step forward this season. Hayden Wesneski and Caleb Kilian did not make the most of their opportunities in the rotation. The bullpen might look different if Codi Heuer and Brandon Hughes weren’t on the injured list. Brennen Davis underwent what the team described as “core muscle surgery,” sidelining a top prospect who should have made his Wrigley Field debut by now. Matt Mervis wasn’t the answer to the lineup’s lack of production, either, going back to Triple A after posting a .531 OPS in 99 plate appearances.

“It’s just normal for guys to come up and not have consistent success right out of the gates,” Hawkins said. “When we were sending Mervis down, I had a conversation with him and said, ‘Look, I’ve only been in professional baseball for 14 years, but within that (time), I’ve only seen one player come up and just succeed from the get-go and stick, and that was Francisco Lindor in Cleveland.’ It’s just such an unusual thing to come up, right out of the gates, and be unbelievable and never stop (producing).

“It’s a process that all these guys have to go through. Anthony Rizzo went through that. We put a plan together. We make sure we understand where the guy is currently, the things that he’s doing well or not well at the fundamental level and the physical level. We think about what our vision for him is as a player and look to bridge that gap. That’s the constant process.”

If the Cubs buy …

The list shouldn’t be too complicated. The Cubs need more depth in the bullpen. If that comes from the left side, all the better. Hoyer can hope for a homegrown group of relievers in the future, but if this team fully gets back in contention, he knows he can’t risk relying on young arms from Triple A to impact the group. Depth in the rotation is always helpful, but probably a secondary concern.

More important, though, is finding a productive bat that can play either of the infield corners. How long Nick Madrigal is out is unclear, Patrick Wisdom has a -32 wRC+ in his past 48 plate appearances and Morel just can’t be trusted defensively at the hot corner yet. By wRC+, the Cubs rank 29th for first basemen, 26th at third and 19th at DH. Morel answers the last spot, but it’s imperative that Hoyer improves at least one of the other two if this team is going to compete. If he can find a lefty who can slug, all the better. Bonus points if they’re under control for 2024.

If the Cubs sell …

Then Stroman will be pitching for another team and the Cubs will be weighing deals for Bellinger against the draft-pick compensation they would receive if he declines a qualifying offer and signs with another team. Hoyer would have to have difficult conversations with chairman Tom Ricketts, manager David Ross and players like Swanson. This was always a possibility for a team that public projection systems pegged to win 70-something games. But selling at the trade deadline three years in a row would heighten the scrutiny on baseball operations and put enormous pressure on the team to win big next season.

(Top photo of Cody Bellinger: Michael McLoone / USA Today)